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| Forecasting successful
for ASU’s Russell |
Jennifer Brannock
Staff Writer
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Josh Brown | Chief Photographer“Forecasting without a
net,” Dr. C. Ray Russell finds Boone weather unpredictable
but challenging. He helps advise between 15,000 - 25,000 visitors’
plans every day on his Web site, booneweather.com. Russell also
teaches in the department of Computer Science.
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High Country locals
are all too familiar with the phrase, “If you don’t like
the weather, wait five minutes.”
In this area of weather irregularity and unpredictability,
Dr. C. Ray Russell has become a local hero for
those people stepping outside to bear the brunt of the Blue Ridge
mountain climate on a daily basis.
Dr. Russell, known by most as Ray, is Boone’s
favorite weather forecaster, parlaying his love of serving others
with his vast knowledge of computers and meteorology.
Ray is an associate professor in the department
of computer science at Appalachian State University, and although
he is not a professional meteorologist, Ray is the weather guru
responsible for one of the High Country’s most popular Web
sites: booneweather.com.
Ray’s Web site is currently at its highest
hit-count to date, averaging 15,000-25,000 hits per day and approximately
1.4 million hits per month. |
The site’s
current daily average viewership is about 10 times what it was in
2000, when it averaged 2,000 hits per day.
“I realized very early on that it was living a life of its
own,” Ray said. “It was living a life I didn’t imagine
for it, and I couldn’t control it. I could direct it.
“If I had tried to make this happen, it wouldn’t have.”
Ray refers to his type of weather prediction as “forecasting
without a net,” meaning his predictions are not regulated by
the government like those of the National Weather Service, and they
can be wrong from time to time.
“We’re not afraid to be wrong,” Ray said. “We’re
going to say what we think on a given day, give it our best shot
and if we’re wrong, then we’re wrong. I think it ends
up leading to better forecasting.”
Growing up in Tennessee, Ray loved snow and eventually began to
develop his interest in meteorology by reading numerous books on
the subject.
Ray attended college at Freed-Hardeman University in Henderson,
Tenn., where he decided to pursue a career of financial prosperity
in the field of computer science.
Ray double-majored in computer science and religious studies due
in part to the lack of a meteorology major at Freed-Hardeman. After
receiving his degree, Ray worked as a full-time minister before
going back to school for his master’s and doctoral degrees
in computer science.
Ray came to Appalachian to teach in 1991, where his renewed love
of snow and weather prediction blossomed.
Ray’s idea to begin his own Internet forecasting began in 1996
while sitting in the office of Dr. James Wilkes, also an associate
professor in the department of computer science.
“We were in his office looking out the window, and it was snowing.
The wind was blowing like crazy,” Ray said. “We pulled
up the weather forecast on the Internet and it said, like, ‘Partly
sunny and 50 degrees for Boone,’ and we thought, ‘We can
do better than that!’”
From there, Ray’s weather-related empire expanded from small,
National Weather Service-based predictions, to one of the most frequently
visited Web sites in the county.
Booneweather.com now operates eight weather stations throughout
the county, and there is now talk of expanding Ray’s forecasts
to Asheville and Hickory.
The weather stations are paid for by various corporate sponsors,
and Ray and his staff of marketing helpers and Web design assistants
receive small amounts of money from advertisers on the site.
“If I approached it from the standpoint of trying to make money,
I’d do a lot of things differently,” Ray said. “I
look at it more as a service. If somebody actually makes money in
the process, that’s fine, but that’s not what it’s
about.”
Ray enjoys serving as the High Country’s informal weatherman,
and even continued to do so remotely during his brief move to Texas
last year. He attributes the Web site’s success to his ministerial
communication skills and presentation of the information.
“I could do the stuff on my end to make sure it was as accurate
as possible, as wholesome as possible, as service-oriented as possible,
and I can do all that and have it just live a life of its own, and
that’s fine,” Ray said.
Ray’s weather-forecasting accuracy is yet to be determined,
but he still acts as the High Country’s most popular deciding
factor when questioning the need for a jacket.
So what kind of winter can the High Country expect this year?
According to Ray, opportunities to break in those new ski coats
and gloves will be abundant, and we can expect an above-average
snowfall of about 60 inches. |
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